Posture
Shadow Only
Shadow Only feed
Loading terminal workspace
Hydrating runtime summary, shell state, and specialist workspace surfaces…
| Family ^ | Contract | Venue | Threshold | Expiry | Support | Confidence | Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity Daily | Gold up/down Up Down · Gold | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Commodity | supported | 100% | Clear | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart |
| # | Contract | Venue | Fair / market | Edge | Side | Rec | Blockers | Engine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apple up/down Medium | Polymarket Shadow Only | 48.1c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -145.1c | -- | Hold | Clear equity_yesno · Apple up/down · hold at -145.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 2 | Apple up/down Medium | Polymarket Shadow Only | 48.1c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -145.1c | -- | Hold | Clear equity_yesno · Apple up/down · hold at -145.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 3 | Dow Jones up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 55.6c / 99.9c yes fair / mkt | -144.1c | -- | Hold | Clear index_intraday · Dow Jones up/down · hold at -144.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 4 | Dow Jones up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 55.6c / 99.9c yes fair / mkt | -144.1c | -- | Hold | Clear index_intraday · Dow Jones up/down · hold at -144.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 5 | Dow Jones up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 55.7c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -141.3c | -- | Hold | Clear index_intraday · Dow Jones up/down · hold at -141.3c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 6 | Dow Jones up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 55.7c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -141.3c | -- | Hold | Clear index_intraday · Dow Jones up/down · hold at -141.3c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 7 | Dow Jones up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 55.7c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -141.3c | -- | Hold | Clear index_intraday · Dow Jones up/down · hold at -141.3c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 8 | Gold up/down High | Polymarket Shadow Only | 38.2c / 99.9c yes fair / mkt | -137.9c | -- | Hold | Clear commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · hold at -137.9c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| Canonical pair | Leg A | Leg B | Basis risk | Raw diff | Fee-adj edge | Settlement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No active cross-venue routes yet. The book promotes pairs once the scanner finds a fee-adjusted dislocation with usable settlement symmetry. | |||||||
| Provider | Status | Stale age | Last OK | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Feed Kalshi | ok | 7m | 9:00:34 PM | Clear |
| Polymarket Feed Polymarket | ok | 7m | 9:00:34 PM | Clear |
| Family ^ | Contract | Venue | Threshold | Expiry | Support | Confidence | Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity Daily | Gold up/down Up Down · Gold | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Commodity | supported | 100% | Clear | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart | |
| Index Daily | Index up/down Up Down · Index | Kalshi Shadow Only | -- Index | quarantined | 30% | quarantinedlow confidenceno counterpart |
| # | Contract | Venue | Fair / market | Edge | Side | Rec | Blockers | Engine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apple up/down Medium | Polymarket Shadow Only | 48.1c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -145.1c | -- | Hold | Clear equity_yesno · Apple up/down · hold at -145.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 2 | Apple up/down Medium | Polymarket Shadow Only | 48.1c / 99.0c yes fair / mkt | -145.1c | -- | Hold | Clear equity_yesno · Apple up/down · hold at -145.1c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 3 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 59.5c / 98.7c yes fair / mkt | -46.2c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -46.2c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 4 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 57.6c / 94.0c yes fair / mkt | -43.4c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -43.4c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 5 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 55.6c / 89.0c yes fair / mkt | -40.4c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -40.4c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 6 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 49.1c / 72.7c yes fair / mkt | -30.6c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -30.6c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 7 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 48.0c / 70.0c yes fair / mkt | -29.0c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -29.0c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 8 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 46.0c / 65.0c yes fair / mkt | -26.0c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at -26.0c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 9 | Gold up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 47.6c / 40.6c yes fair / mkt | 0.0c | -- | Blocked | Venue Book One-sided commodity_yesno · Gold up/down · blocked at +0.0c net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| 10 | Silver up/down High | Kalshi Shadow Only | 40.0c / -- yes fair / mkt | -- | -- | Blocked | Venue Book Missing commodity_yesno · Silver up/down · blocked at -infc net | Unpublished 9:06:56 PM |
| Canonical pair | Leg A | Leg B | Basis risk | Raw diff | Fee-adj edge | Settlement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No active cross-venue routes yet. The book promotes pairs once the scanner finds a fee-adjusted dislocation with usable settlement symmetry. | |||||||
| Provider | Status | Stale age | Last OK | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Feed Kalshi | ok | 7m | 9:00:34 PM | Clear |
| Polymarket Feed Polymarket | ok | 7m | 9:00:34 PM | Clear |
| Group | N | Brier | Hit rate | Cal drift | Model | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity Daily | 1507 | -- | -- | -- | Unpublished | 2026-04-09T20:29:03.911849+00:00 - 2026-04-09T21:06:56.502291+00:00 |
| 485 | -- | -- | -- | Unpublished | 2026-04-09T19:47:15.889235+00:00 - 2026-04-09T19:59:45.444620+00:00 | |
| Index Daily | 8 | -- | -- | -- | Unpublished | 2026-04-09T19:49:15.168798+00:00 - 2026-04-09T19:50:59.890464+00:00 |